Anthropic Extinction Clock

A continuously updated estimate of the probability that automated means remove the human species. All figures are fictional, satirical, and independently embarrassing.

Time to Midnight

2h 00m 00s

10:00:00 PM

Risk Level

ELEVATED

Confidence

10.0%

± 99.0 pts

Model v

7.3.1

patched: humor

Method

Bayesian dread, calibrated to a single viral post and an entire comment section.

Someone asked the model to be evil as a joke −4mExistential risk cited in a TED talk −11m“It's only a chatbot” +2mViral tweet about extinction −7mBoardroom whiteboard: “the end” −3mModel refused to be dramatic +5mA researcher said “10%” out loud −10mModel apologized unprompted +3mSomeone asked the model to be evil as a joke −4mExistential risk cited in a TED talk −11m“It's only a chatbot” +2mViral tweet about extinction −7mBoardroom whiteboard: “the end” −3mModel refused to be dramatic +5mA researcher said “10%” out loud −10mModel apologized unprompted +3m

§ 1.0

Data Source

Primary input is one quote. The remainder is statistical hand-waving and an unreasonably large number of footnotes.

§ 2.0

Calibration

Weights are updated on a six-hour cycle, or whenever a new joke becomes viral. Whichever produces more dread.

§ 3.0

Limitations

The clock cannot be stopped, paused, or un-alarmed. Please do not contact the office. It is not there.